Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 3.168699 3.754430 4.405861 5.182308 6.080713 7.085637 8.292885
2025-07-13 2.444440 3.272437 4.296055 5.645813 7.368970 9.484397 12.265885
2025-07-20 1.889953 2.810495 4.055629 5.841903 8.313505 11.583388 16.201059
2025-07-27 1.532834 2.497204 3.906391 6.077380 9.289392 13.807476 20.567307
2025-08-03 1.226492 2.172148 3.654204 6.087667 9.907013 15.573871 24.484923
2025-08-10 0.957972 1.836824 3.308111 5.871428 10.118910 16.734096 27.612643
2025-08-17 0.744401 1.540546 2.959809 5.574395 10.131190 17.552185 30.264950
2025-08-24 0.611129 1.356671 2.764050 5.490484 10.461069 18.881681 33.833050
2025-08-31 0.509611 1.209573 2.604421 5.436841 10.820782 20.278505 37.629599
2025-09-07 0.456828 1.150429 2.599918 5.666413 11.709074 22.658786 43.314048
2025-09-14 0.394117 1.054483 2.502801 5.695891 12.218530 24.407795 48.041311
2025-09-21 0.340608 0.966912 2.406428 5.708651 12.689944 26.123080 52.851415
2025-09-28 0.291024 0.878874 2.297269 5.686607 13.107606 27.815864 57.855130
2025-10-05 0.279035 0.885893 2.408397 6.166775 14.627119 31.790349 67.566859
2025-10-12 0.251931 0.845144 2.398298 6.370219 15.582829 34.745151 75.570299
2025-10-19 0.230406 0.814807 2.408267 6.621496 16.671986 38.070308 84.593150
2025-10-26 0.200978 0.752695 2.324404 6.631382 17.217174 40.318642 91.629797
2025-11-02 0.166767 0.665218 2.154672 6.397255 17.165088 41.292030 96.113476
2025-11-09 0.135482 0.577261 1.964419 6.076012 16.859217 41.676232 99.375843
2025-11-16 0.116072 0.524815 1.866304 5.985230 17.103862 43.299354 105.434680
2025-11-23 0.100371 0.480981 1.784975 5.927205 17.422064 45.115276 112.062342
2025-11-30 0.093739 0.470908 1.808656 6.175411 18.563065 48.940178 123.485580
2025-12-07 0.083248 0.441303 1.762024 6.207274 19.132052 51.457530 132.116876